极冰对南方涛动的影响

THE INFLUENCE TO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ON SEA ICE OF THE ARCTIC AND ANTARCTIC

中文关键词:  极冰时间尺度分析  非线性相关分析  统计动力模型模拟  周期模式

英文关键词:Analysis for time scale  Nonlinear relationship  Sim ulation on statisticdy namic modeling  Periodic model

中文摘要:

      分析南、北极冰量与南方涛动序列作月、季和年尺度的变化过程线性相关关系,发现北极冰量与南方涛动指数是反相关关系,而南极冰量与南方涛动是正相关。比较而言,南极冰量与南方涛动的关系在月和季尺度上似乎较北极与大气的关系密切些。在各时间尺度序列中以太平洋地区南极极冰的影响表现最明显。分析发现极冰与南方涛动之间存在较复杂的非线性关系。在前期极冰的强信号寻找中,发现极冰与南方涛动在月序列的相关关系上存在周期变化现象。进一步选择相关极值的对应步长建立前期极冰状态激发大气变化的预测统计动力模式,模式对大气序列的解释方差可达0.90以上。文中还进一步探讨了月序列存在的周期变化的共同因素的影响。

英文摘要:

      The analysisis completed for the relationship between sea ice of the Arctic and Antarctic, and the index of Southern Oscillation variation on the temporal scale of month, season and year in this paper. The negative correlation between seaice of the Arctic and the index of Southern Oscillation, and the positive correlation between seaice of the Antarctic and the index of Southern Oscillation were found. The variation of seaice of Antarctic Pacific seems to more important on the influence to atmosphere. Their nonlinear relatio nship represent smore stronger then the linear relationship. The relationship between seaice of the Arctic and Antarctic in the early stage, and the index of Southern Oscillation exit speriod phenomenon. The maximum correlation is used to build the model for forecasting the at mosphere variation on the seaice of the Arctic and Antarctic. The ex plained variance can be surpass 0.90. The periodic variation and the common factors in monthly series are discussed in this paper.