江苏寒潮天气过程风险预评估方法研究

Research on Risk Pre- assessment Method for Cold Wave Weather Processes

中文关键词:  寒潮过程,气象致灾因子,智能网格预报,危险性预估,风险预估

英文关键词:cold wave process, meteorological disaster causing factor, intelligent grid prediction data, hazard pre-assessment, risk pre-assessment

中文摘要:

      本文利用江苏省1961—2020年70个国家站及1300多个区域自动站同时段的日最低气温重构数据，选取最低气温48小时最大降温幅度、累计降温幅度、过程日极端最低气温和寒潮过程持续天数共4个要素作为寒潮灾害气象致灾因子，综合信息熵赋权法和专家打分法确定各致灾因子权重，构建寒潮过程致灾危险性评估模型，形成致灾危险性指数长时间序列，采用百分位法，确定危险性等级。基于智能网格气温预报数据，计算寒潮过程预估致灾危险性指数，在此基础上结合承灾体暴露度及脆弱性信息，构建寒潮过程风险预评估模型，对高分辨率人口、国内生产总值（Gross Domestic Product，以下简称GDP）和小麦等承灾体进行风险预估，同时考虑前期气温对小麦生长的影响，修正了小麦脆弱性指标。结果表明：（1）江苏省历年寒潮过程发生频次总体呈现上世纪多、本世纪少的态势，北部地区发生频次显著多于南部地区；寒潮过程的气象致灾因子强度大体上具有西部强于东部、北部强于南部的分布特征；（2）通过对2022年11月28日—12月3日江苏全省性寒潮天气过程的个例分析，可以得出与实际灾情基本相符的寒潮天气过程的致灾危险性预评估和风险预估结果。

英文摘要:

      Based on the daily minimum temperature data of 70 national stations and reconstruction data of more than 1300 regional automatic stations in the same period from 1961 to 2020 in Jiangsu Province, 4?indicators?related?to?cold?waves?are?selected as the meteorological disaster causing factors of cold wave disasters. The weight of each disaster causing factor is determined by combining the information entropy weighting method and Delphi method. A disaster risk assessment model are built to form a long-term series of disaster risk indices, which is then used to determine the risk level by the percentile method. Based on intelligent grid temperature prediction data, the predicted disaster risk index for the cold wave process is calculated. Then, a risk pre-assessment model for the cold wave process is constructed by combining the exposure and vulnerability information of the disaster bearing body. The impact of early temperature on wheat growth is also considered in order to modify the wheat vulnerability index. The results are as follows: (1) The frequency of cold wave events in Jiangsu Province has generally shown a trend of more in the last century and less in this century, with the frequency of occurrence significantly higher in the northern region than in the southern region; The intensity of meteorological disaster causing factors are generally stronger in the west than in the east, and stronger in the north than in the south; (2) By analyzing a case study of the cold wave event from November 28 to December 3, 2022, it can be obtained that the pre-assessment risk results was basically consistent with the actual disaster situation.