南海台风模式对“海燕”移动路径的预报

The track of Typhoon "Haiyan" as predicted by the typhoon model for South China Sea

中文关键词:  台风  路径  数值预报

英文关键词:Typhoon  Typhoon track  Numerical weather prediction

中文摘要:

      超强台风“海燕”是2013年最著名的台风。 分析中国南海台风模式对“海燕”整个过程的预报，发现模式基本预报出“海燕”的快速穿过菲律宾和登陆越南后北翘东折的移动路径，但也存在一些不足，例如强度预报偏弱。通过高分辨率数值模拟分析了“海燕”的变化机理，发现高层暖心、高中低层一致东风气流是其超强发展和快速西移的主要特征。进一步的模式预报试验中，探讨了模拟技术对提高台风预报水平的影响作用。分析结果表明，准确的模式物理参数化（如边界层、积云对流和地形参数化）和模式初始大气构造等，以及提高模式分辨率有助于提高台风预报水平。

英文摘要:

      Super typhoon Haiyan (2013) was the most notable typhoon in 2013. In this study, the operational prediction of Haiyan (2013) by the Tropical Regional Model for South China Sea (TRAMS) is analyzed. The results show that the model successfully reproduces Haiyan 's fast passage through the Philippines, and its northward deflection after landfall in Vietnam. There are also some shortcomings, including the predicted too weak intensity compared to the observed. An analysis of the higher-resolution model simulations indicates that the storm is also characterized by an upper-level warning core during its mature stage, and a deep layer of easterly flow. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to study the impact of certain physical processes on the improvement of the typhoon forecast. The results show that appropriate boundary-layer, cumulus and orographic gravity wave parameterizations, and improved initial conditions as well as increased horizontal grid resolution all help improve the intensity forecast of Haiyan.