模糊优选方法及其在月集合预报中的应用

FUZZY SET METHODS AND ITS APPLICATION IN MONTHLY DYNAMICAL EXTENDED-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST

中文关键词:  模糊  权重  集合

英文关键词:Fuzzy  Weight  Ensemble

中文摘要:

      根据1996年和1997年春季的17个T63L16月集合预报个例,利用模糊优选方法,给出一个新的春季500hPa月预报场的集合方案,该方案中的权重系数比较客观地反映了预报水平的时空变化,预报技巧有明显提高.根据春季500hPa高度场误差的时空分布特征,利用所得权重系数对预报场进行误差订正,效果更为显著.

英文摘要:

      According to 17 forecast cases of Model T63L16 in spring 1996 and 1997,a group of new weight coefficients are calculated by use of Fuzzy Set Theories and Methods.The new weight coefficients can significantly improve ensemble forecast skill and reflect distributed features of forecast results.On the basis of error features in spring,the results are better through error correction using the new weight coefficients.