黄河三花地区汛期逐日降水MOS预报的因子选择试验

THE EXPERIMENTS FOR SELECTING PREDICTORS FOR DAILY PRECIPITATION FORECASTING WITH MOS DURING FLOOD PERIOD IN SAN-HUA AREA OF YELLOW RIVER

中文摘要:

      河南黄河三花地区地处黄河流域的中游下段地区,该地有名的黄泛区是历史上水旱灾害频发的地区.该地汛期短期降水预报的准确与否是十分重要的.由于近年来数值预报的发展和广泛应用,局地气象要素短期预报大多使用MOS方法,其中降水预报常用一种所谓REEP的降水概率预报.

英文摘要:

      In order to make daily forecasting for the precipitation with MOS in the San-Hua area of Yellow River in the flood period of 15 July to 15 August,the experiments for selecting the predictors from a lot of variables of model output statistics of numerical forecast proposed,which are four models:stepwise regression of linear correlation,nonlinear stepwise egression,nonlinear stepwise regression with principal component and rotated principal component.The results show that the model of nonlinear stepwise regression with rotated principal component has the highest skill score of forecast in the models and is synoptic meaningful.