NOAA卫星探测数据对B-模式分析预报系统性误差的影响

TH IMPACT OF NOAA SATELLITE SOUNDING DATA ON THE SYSTEMATIC FORECAST ERROR OF B-MODEL

中文关键词:  卫星数据  预报  系统误差

英文关键词:Satellite data  Forecast  Systematic error

中文摘要:

      本文报告极轨气象卫星探测数据对B-模式的海平面气压场预报和500hPa高度预报的系统性误差的影响.主要结果是:(1)B-模式预报海平面气压的强度偏弱,即高压系统太低,低压太高;(2)500hPa高度预报的系统性误差情况不如海平面气压场误差情况明显.但也能发现槽区的高度预报不够低,而脊区的高度预报不够高;(3)应用卫星数据对B-模式分析预报系统的预报有正作用,对海洋上的地面低压和500hPa槽区附近的系统性误差有明显减小,但对其它地区天气系统预报的正负影响参差不齐,其作用难下结论.

英文摘要:

      This paper is to ezamine the impact of satellite data on the systematic error of operational B-model is P,R,China, It is to put emphasis oa the study of the impact of satellite sounding data on forecasts of the sea level pressure field and 500 h'Pa height, The major findings are listed below. 1) The B-model usually underforecasts the strength of features is the sea level pressure (SLP) field,i,e.pressures are too low near high pressure systems and too high near low pressure systems. 2) The nature of the systematic errors found in the 500 hPa height forecasts is not as clear out as that of the SLP forecasts, but most often the same type of patern is seen,i,e.,the Neighs in troughs are not low enough and those in ridges are not high enough. 3) The use of satellite data in the B-model analysis/forecast system is found to have an impact upon the model's forecast of SLP and 500 hPa height systematic errors in the vicinity of surface lows/500hPa troughs over the oceans were usually found to be significantly reduced,A less conclusive mix of positive and negative impact was found for all other types of features.