中期(旬)天气客观相似预报方案

AN OBJECTIVE ANALOGUE SCHEME FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECAST

中文摘要:

      目前,中期数值天气预报的最长可用的预报时效约为6-7天,对中期数值预报输出产品进行统计释用的MOS,PP等方法制作的逐日具体天气预报的最长可用时效约为5-6天.要完全靠以上客观预报方法进行10天天气变化过程预报仍有待时日.为此,本文提出一个综合考虑中期数值天气预报输出产品及历史天气过程的旬天气客观相似预报方案.本方案用500 hPa候平均高度场在预报时刻前后连

英文摘要:

      An objective analogue scheme for medium-range (a period of ten days) weather forecast is developed. Using the late information of objective analysis and medium-range numerical prediction products and objective analogue crit erion an analogue process by which the weather forecast in a period of 10 days will be made in 500hPa evolution of circulation and variation of canonical field from adjacent past data is found by computer. The forecasting results indicated that this scheme is efficacious.