台风自身动力学过程(CISK)对其移动的影响

THE EFFECT OF THE TYPHOON DYNAMICS PROCESS (CISK) TO ITS MOVING

中文摘要:

      台风的移动是一个既重要又复杂的气象问题,虽然已经有过许多分析研究,但仍有不少问题没有搞清楚.在台风路径预报中,目前用得较多的方法之一是所谓“引导气流法”,它把台风作为一个“质点”,其移动只受外部流场的引导.不考虑台风自身动力学过程的影响,可能是引导气流法出现台风路径预报误差的重要原因之一.因为实际台风是一种极为活跃的天气系统,不能视其为完全被动的“质点”.除了外界环境(引导气流)对台风的移动有影响外,台风本身的动力学过程和结构也必然对其移动有不可忽视的作用.根据第二类条件不稳定理论,台风的形成和发展是积云对流和天气尺度低压扰动间正反馈的结果.

英文摘要:

      The influence of the typhoon dynamics has been studied based on theoretic research and practical computations in this paper. The results indicate that the CISK perturbance usually has dynamics moving velocity northwestward over Northwestern Pacific. Practical show that the typhoon dynamics moving velocity can approach 1/3 of the mean moving velocity of typhoons and it may be more sometimes. Therefore, the forecasting accuracy will be obviously improved to good if the dynamics moving velocity of typhoon indicated in this paper is considered. Particularly, the typhoon dynamics moving velocity is more important to forecast the difficult and complicated track of typhoon.