我国季平均的0.8m地温距平场与后一季降水场的相关分析

THE SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE SEASONAL ANOMALOUS MAPS OF SOIL TEMPERATURE AND THE PRECIPITATION OF THE SUBSEQUENT SEASON

中文摘要:

      从1975年到现在,我们用1.6m地温做汛期(4～9月)降水预报的工作已有13年^[1-3].根据汤懋苍在美国的工作,用1.02m季平均地温距平做美国下一季的降水预报,其历史检验的效果似乎比中国略好^[4],但美国地温的资料情况比中国要差得多,到1982年为止有1.02m深度地温的测站仅38个,由于资料太少以至于分析图时颇感困难.而中国现有0.8m地温的测站已达200多个,这样所分析出的图任意性很小,所以实际预报的效果应该是中国的比美国的好.

英文摘要:

      Based on observations in China during last 30 year s(1954-1983) it was found that seasonal anomalous patterns of soil temperature at a depth of 80cm look similar to the pattens of precipitation of the subsequent season. The mean distance of the maximum axes between the above two elements were less than 2 Lat. with a percent of 76 00.To predict the subsequent season will be a wet(dry) season at east half China, a clear signal is that a cold trough(warm ridge) of 80cm soil temperature have been located in the east edge of Tibet Plateau (100°-105°E) during this season.