PREDICTABILITY LEVELS OF MONTHLY FORECAST BASED ON TIME AVERAGED OCEAN/ATMOSPHERE VARIABLES:A NATURALLY OCCURING ANALOGUES STUDY

Abstract:

      Naturally occuring analogues in the monthly averaged date of 1000, 500,100hPa height and sea-surface temperature(SST) in the Pacific, Atlantic, Indian Ocean during the period Januarys 1956-December 1972 are used to study the potential predictability levels of monthly mean forecast of Ocean/atmosphere variables. It is found that in the ocean-atmosphere system the forecast of geopotential height may be more difficult than SST. It is also found that the predictability level of geopotential height anomaly calculated from the corresponding monthly SST appear relatively poor, but it can be improved by useing past observational date of monthly mean SST/geopotential fields.