基于雷达外推的烤烟人工防雹效益评估方法研究

Study on hail suppression benefit assessment on tobacco based on radar extrapolation

中文关键词:  冰雹，烤烟，雷达，人工防雹，效益评估

英文关键词:Hail,Tobacco,Radar,Hail suppression,Economic benefit assessment

中文摘要:

      [目的]西南地区作为烤烟主要种植区域之一，地形多样且冰雹灾害频发，严重影响了烟草生产、收购以及烟农收益。人工防雹是有效防控冰雹灾害的手段，但其效益评估大多以防区内外对比等方法为主，缺乏客观定量评估。[资料和方法]因此本研究构建烤烟冰雹灾损模型，以2023年7月1日冰雹过程为例，基于雷达观测和外推数据反演有/无人工防雹作业情况下的冰雹相关因子，[结果]对烤烟的人工防雹减损经济效益进行了详细评估。[结论]得到如下结论：对比四种回归模型构建了烤烟灾损和冰雹最大直径、持续时间和密度的最优关系模型，发现对数线性回归模型能够较好模拟烤烟的冰雹灾损；雷达能够反演区域1km分辨率冰雹相关因子和烤烟冰雹灾损情况，烤烟受灾严重区域与雷达反演冰雹直径较大和持续时间较长区域较为一致；利用雷达观测和外推数据发现不同作业点防区内烤烟冰雹减损效果不同，近一半防区减损效果达30%以上；本次冰雹过程人工防雹作业每投入1元，能够带来烤烟减损9.59元。本研究可为人工防雹对冰雹承灾体经济效益、金融气象服务效益定量评估等研究提供科学依据。

英文摘要:

      As one of the main tobacco cultivation areas, the Southwest China has diverse terrain and frequent hailstorms, which seriously affect tobacco production, procurement, and the farmer’s income. Hail suppression is an effective way to prevent and control hailstorms, but most of its benefit assessment is based on the comparison between inside and outside the region, which lacks objective and quantitative assessment. Therefore, this study constructs a hail yield loss model for tobacco, taking the hailstorm process on July 1, 2023 as an example, and based on radar observation and extrapolated data to invert the hail-related factors with/without hail suppression, and carried out a detailed assessment of the economic benefits of hail suppression. The results show that, by comparing four regression models, an optimal relationship model was constructed between tobacco yield loss rate and hail maximum diameter, duration, and density. It was found that the log-linear regression model can effectively simulate tobacco crop damage caused by hail. Radar can reflect the regional 1km resolution of hail factors and tobacco hail damage. And the yield loss areas and radar reflection of hail with a larger diameter and longer duration of the area is consistent. Using radar observations and extrapolation data, it was found that the hail suppression effect of in different areas was varied. Nearly half of the hail suppression areas have a yield reduction effect reached more than 30%. For each yuan invested in hail suppression operations during this hail process was able to bring about a tobacco loss reduction of 9.59 yuan. This study can provide a scientific basis for research on methods such as quantitative evaluation of the economic benefits of hail suppression to hail disaster bodies and the quantitative assessment of the benefits of financial meteorological services.