百年文集特邀稿件中国数值天气预报业务系统70年发展

The Development of China''s Numerical Weather Forecast Operational System in 70 Years

中文关键词:  数值天气预报，GRAPES，YHGSM，半隐式半拉格朗日平流, 格点模式，谱模式，物理过程，卫星资料同化，四维变分同化，集合四维变分同化

英文关键词:Numerical  Weather Prediction, GRAPES, YHGSM, Semi-implicit  Semi-Lagrangian  advection, Grid-point  model, Spectral  model, Physical  processes, Satellite  data assimilation, Four-dimensional  assimilation, Ensemble  four-dimensional  assimilation

中文摘要:

      数值天气预报是天气预报业务和防灾减灾的核心科技。中国数值天气预报研究和业务应用一直受到高度重视,在基础理论研究、关键技术突破和业务系统研制方面取得了有广泛国际影响的研究成果。在回顾新中国数值天气预报技术及业务系统发展基础上,重点综述我国自主发展的GRAPES(Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System)和YHGSM(YinHe Global Spectral Model)两大业务预报系统的重要科技进展。GRAPES在模式动力框架、四维变分资料同化、卫星资料同化技术、雷达资料同化应用、集合预报和云物理过程等方面实现了技术突破，建立了无缝隙的、包含确定性预报和集合预报系统的中国气象局数值天气预报业务体系。YHGSM持续走谱模式发展路线,突破了干空气质量守恒全球大气谱模式、集合四维变分同化、海陆气耦合集合预报等技术,建立了以高分辨率全球中期和月延伸数值预报系统为核心的数值预报体系。军地自主研发的数值天气预报系统是长期坚持既定科学技术方向、学术研究和业务研制紧密结合的结果。

英文摘要:

      Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the core technology of weather forecast and disaster prevention and mitigation. The research and operational applications of NWP have always been highly valued in China, and have achieved great achievements with broad international influence in the theories, methods and operational system developments. This paper first summarizes the scientific and technological progresses of NWP in China, and then focuses on the current status and recent progresses of two domestically developed NWP systems, i.e., GRAPES (Global Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) and YHGSM (YinHe Global Spectral Model). GRAPES implements deterministic and ensemble forecasting systems with autonomous technology ranging from regional 3-10 km to global 12-50 km resolutions. New breakthroughs have been made in dynamic core, four-dimensional variational assimilation and satellite data assimilation, etc. The GRAPES system also is extended to include the atmospheric chemistry model, typhoon numerical m