集合预报进展、挑战及展望*

A review on development, challenges and future perspectives of ensemble forecast

中文关键词:  集合预报，方法，中国集合预报，回顾

英文关键词:Ensemble  forecast, Method, CMA  ensemble forecast, Review

中文摘要:

      本文系统地概述了集合预报的发展历程和国内外主要的集合预报方法,重点回顾了中国全球/区域集合预报预测系统发展历程、集合预报系统业务技术、初值扰动技术、模式扰动技术和集合预报应用的进步,以及与当前国际主要数值预报中心集合预报水平的对比。最后针对集合预报系统逐步走向对流尺度、海陆气冰耦合模式的趋势,从业务、科学、人工智能与集合预报、天气气候一体化以及用户需求等方面分析了集合预报技术发展面临的主要挑战,最后进行总结及展望。

英文摘要:

      This paper reviews the development of ensemble forecast and the primary techniques employed in the main ensemble prediction systems (EPS) designed by China and other countries. Here, the emphasis is placed on the development of China Meteorological Administration (CMA) global and regional EPSs, focusing on operational technologies, initial and model perturbation methods, and the applications of ensemble forecast. Besides, the analysis is provided to present the similar forecast skills by comparing the verification results of CMA EPS and other major international NWP centers. According to the trend of the EPS towards convective-scale and sea-land-air-ice coupling, the paper addresses the key challenges in ensemble forecast technologies on the aspects of operation, science, integrated with Artificial Intelligence (AI), the integration of weather and climate, and user requirements. The summaries and future perspectives of ensemble forecast are concluded in the end.