黄垭飞,管兆勇,蔡倩,吕纯月. 2021. 近41年来江南地区暴雨洪涝灾害时空变化特征分析[J]. 气象学报, 79(4):582-597, doi:10.11676/qxxb2021.044
近41年来江南地区暴雨洪涝灾害时空变化特征分析
Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of rainstorms and related flood disasters in Jiangnan region in the recent 41 years
投稿时间:2020-10-15  修订日期:2021-05-07
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2021.044
中文关键词:  暴雨洪涝  灾害损失  江南地区  防灾能力建设
英文关键词:Rainstorm-flood  Disaster losses  Jiangnan region  Disaster prevention capacity building
基金项目:国家重点研发计划重点专项(2019YFC1510201)、国家自然科学基金项目(41975073)
作者单位E-mail
黄垭飞 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044  
管兆勇 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044 guanzy@nuist.edu.cn 
蔡倩 广东省气象公共服务中心广州510000  
吕纯月 南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心南京210044  
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中文摘要:
      暴雨和防灾能力建设是影响洪涝灾害发生及其损失变化的重要因素。根据1978—2018年江南地区(沪、浙、闽、湘、赣五省、市)暴雨洪涝灾害数据、气象台站观测逐日降水量资料、社会经济数据,统计分析了近41年江南地区暴雨及其引发的洪涝灾害损失的变化特征及时、空差异,并从降水和社会防治两方面分析其成因。结果表明:近41年来江南地区因暴雨洪涝灾害农作物受灾面积、成灾面积、受灾率和成灾率呈先升后降的波动变化趋势,20世纪90年代为相对高值期,空间分布呈明显的西多东少特点。近41年来江南地区暴雨发生频次及强度呈波动增加趋势,且暴雨在时间、空间上的持续性和集中度呈增加趋势,空间上呈现为江南中东部较高、西部较低的特点,暴雨发生集中期为5—8月,尤以6月最多。暴雨日数、大暴雨日数、暴雨累计降水量与农作物受灾面积、成灾面积、受灾率均呈显著正相关关系,在一定范围内,暴雨强度增强,是农作物受灾面积、尤其是成灾面积增加的重要因素。持续性暴雨日数、每月暴雨日数标准差、每站暴雨日数标准差与农作物受灾面积、成灾面积、受灾率、成灾率均呈显著正相关关系,说明暴雨在时间和空间上的持续性、集中度越强,受灾损失就越大。降水与受灾损失的关系存在年代际差异,近年来它们之间的相关呈降低趋势。暴雨频次、强度与洪涝受灾损失在时间、空间上的分布并不完全一致。暴雨洪涝灾害发生及其影响既受气象因素影响,也受到承灾体和社会因素影响。尽管江南地区灾害防治能力逐渐增强,对减少灾害发生和减轻灾害损失发挥了重大作用,但江南地区防灾能力建设在空间上呈现为东强西弱的特点。因此,整个江南地区,尤其是江南西部,应当继续加强防灾能力建设。
英文摘要:
      Rainstorm and capacity building for disaster prevention are important factors that affect the occurrence of flood disasters and the changes in their losses. Based on the rainstorm-flood disaster data, daily precipitation data observed by meteorological stations, and socio-ecomomic data in the Jiangnan region (Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, and Jiangxi) from 1978 to 2018, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of rainstorms and losses caused by rainstorm-flood disasters were investigated in Jiangnan region in the recent 41 years. Results show that the affected area, the damaged area, the affected rate and the damaged rate of crops by rainstorm-flood disasters show a "first rising-then falling" trend in the recent 41 years in Jiangnan region. A relatively high level period is found in the 1990s. The spatial distribution of disasters shows a characteristic of "more in the west and less in the east". In the past 41 years, the frequency and intensity of rainstorm in Jiangnan region have fluctuated and increased, the duration and spatial concentration are increasing, showing a characteristic of "higher in the middle and east of the Jiangnan region and lower in the west". Rainstorms are concentrated from May to August, especially in June. Except for the number of severe rainstorm days, the number of rainstorm days, the number of extreme rainstorm days, and the accumulated rainfall amount of the rainstorm all are significantly and positively correlated with the sizes of affected areas and injured areas as well as the affected rate of the crops. The increase in the intensity of rainstorms is an important factor that contributes to the increase in the affected area, especially the damaged area. The intensity of heavy rainstorms has increased, which have a positive impact on the area affected by the disasters, especially the increase in the area damaged by the disasters. The consecutive rainstorm days, the standard deviation of rainstorm days per month, and the standard deviation of the rainstorm days per station are significantly and positively correlated with the affected area, the damaged area, the affected rate, and the damaged rate, indicating the stronger the spatiotemporal concentration and the sustainability of rainstorms, the greater the disaster loss. There are decadal differences in the relationship between precipitation and disaster losses, and the correlation between them has shown a decreasing trend in recent years. The frequency and intensity of rainstorms are not completely consistent with the distribution of flood-induced losses in time and space, indicating that the occurrence and impact of rainstorm-flood disasters are not only affected by meteorological factors, but also by disaster-bearers and social factors. The construction of disaster prevention in the Jiangnan region is spatially characterized by "strong in the east and weak in the west". The ability of disaster prevention in Jiangnan region has gradually developed, which has played an important role in reducing disaster occurrences and disaster losses. Therefore, in the Jiangnan region, especially the western Jiangnan region, disaster prevention should be further addressed.
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