岳治国,余兴,刘贵华,王瑾,戴进,李金辉. 2021. 一次飞机冷云增雨作业效果检验[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2021.051
一次飞机冷云增雨作业效果检验
Effect evaluation of an operational precipitation enhancement of cold cloud by aircraft
投稿时间:2021-03-10  修订日期:2021-05-11
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2021.051
中文关键词:  飞机增雨,效果检验,过冷层云,增雨定量估算,Z-I关系
英文关键词:Aircraft precipitation enhancement, effect evaluation, supercooled stratiform cloud, quantitative estimation of precipitation enhancement, Z-I relationship
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1507903,2016YFA0601704) 、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J040)、西北区域人影科学试验研究项目(RYSY201905)、陕西省重点研发计划项目(2020SF-429,2021ZDLGY09-09)
作者单位邮编
岳治国 陕西省人工影响天气中心 710016
余兴 陕西省气象科学研究所 710016
刘贵华 陕西省气象科学研究所 710016
王瑾 陕西省人工影响天气中心 710016
戴进 陕西省气象科学研究所 710016
李金辉 陕西省人工影响天气中心 710016
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中文摘要:
      [目的] 最近六十多年以来,全球范围内广泛开展了人工增雨作业,但人工增雨效果检验一直是一个难题。传统上,利用雨量计和目标/控制区统计数据评估人工增雨量,结果大多不确定。对一次人工增雨作业而言,从科学上给出令人信服效果检验更是没有好的解决方案。[资料和方法] 2017年3月19日,陕西省实施业务飞机冷云增雨作业播撒含有750 g AgI的催化剂,播撒线长125 km。作业后卫星、雷达观测到一条与播云线对应的清晰的云迹线,地面雨滴谱仪观测到相应的雨强、雨滴数浓度、雨滴直径增大,表明播云使云体产生了增雨响应。[结果]针对这次增雨过程,从连片雷达回波中分离增雨作用造成的回波增强带(增雨雷达回波)和确定了自然降水回波强度,建立增雨雷达回波与地面雨强的拟合关系(Z-I),定量研究人工增雨的时空演变。[结论]结果表明:(1)增雨影响时间约4 h,雷达回波增强区域(增雨影响区)面积为5448 km2。该区累积降雨总量和增雨总量分别为151.8万m3和80.4万m3,增雨影响区内增雨率达53%。(2)总降雨量、增雨量、自然降雨量随时间先增后减,总降雨量与增雨量的峰值同步,两者峰值都早于自然降雨峰值;催化后146 min(0447 UTC),每6min增雨量达到最大,为4.9万 m3;催化后174 min(0515 UTC),增雨雷达回波面积达到最大(1711m2),面积峰值滞后增雨量峰值出现。(3)增雨影响区位于播撒线下游,呈条带状;区域内总降雨量空间分布为中间大边缘小,与增雨量空间分布一致。(4)此次增雨作业改变了降雨时空分布,促进降雨形成,增加了地面降雨量。
英文摘要:
      In latest 60 years, artificial precipitation enhancement has been widely carried out around the world. However, the effect of artificial precipitation enhancement has not been given sophisticatedly due to the lack of the supporting linkage. Traditionally, the statistic method by comparing precipitation at target area with control area are used to evaluate the efficiency of artificial precipitation, and brings about great uncertainty. Usually, there is no good solution to give convincing and scientific evaluation for an operation of artificial precipitation enhancement. On March 19, 2017, an operational precipitation enhancement for the supercooled stratiform cloud by aircraft was carried out at Shaanxi province, in which 750 g AgI was seeded along a 125 km seeding line. After the operation, a clear cloud track corresponding to the cloud seeding line was observed by the satellite and radar, and the corresponding increase of rain intensity, raindrop number concentration and raindrop diameter was also simultaneously observed by raindrop spectrometer on ground, which suggested the linkage of the cloud seeding from the view of microphysical properties and enhanced precipitation. Aiming at the problem of effect evaluation on rain enhancement, by comprehensive analyses of the observation data from this operation, a new method of effect evaluation is put forward. It is to separate the enhanced echo of radar caused by cloud seeding from the continuous radar echo, and to determine the background echo (natural precipitation echo), to establish the fitting relationship between rain enhancement echo and rain intensity (Z-I) on ground, and to quantitatively study the effect of artificial rain enhancement. The results show that: (1) the effective time of precipitation enhancement is about 4 hours, and the influence area is 5448 km2 for this operation. The total precipitation and total enhanced precipitation are 1518000 m3 and 804000 m3 respectively, and the rate of precipitation enhancement is 53% in influence area. (2) The total precipitation, enhanced precipitation and natural precipitation first increase and then decrease with time, the peak value of total precipitation is synchronous with that of enhanced precipitation, earlier than that of natural precipitation. After cloud seeding, the enhanced pprecipitation reaches its maximum of 49000 m3 at 146 min (0447 UTC), and the area of radar echo reaches its maximum of 1711 m2 at 174 min (0515 UTC), the peak of the former is behind that of the latter. (3) The influence area of precipitation enhancement is located in the down reaches of the moving seeding line in a form of strip, the spatial distribution of total precipitation in this area is larger at its center and smaller at its edge, which is consistent with the spatial distribution of enhanced precipitation. (4) This operation changes the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation and promotes the formation of precipitation.
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