朱颖墨,窦小东,王瑞芳,解明恩,黄玮,李蒙. 2021. 气候变化对云南省小粒咖啡适生区的影响[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2021.049
气候变化对云南省小粒咖啡适生区的影响
The impact of climate change on the suitable growth zone of coffea arabica in Yunnan province
投稿时间:2020-12-31  修订日期:2021-05-17
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2021.049
中文关键词:  最大熵模型,气候变化,适生区,小粒咖啡,云南
英文关键词:maximum entropy model, climate change, suitable growth zone, coffea arabica, Yunnan.
基金项目:云南省重点研发计划项目(2018BC007)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J056)、自然科学基金项目(41761109)
作者单位邮编
朱颖墨 云南大学地球科学学院 650091
窦小东 云南省气象服务中心 650091
王瑞芳  650091
解明恩  650034
黄玮  650034
李蒙  650034
摘要点击次数: 160
全文下载次数: 119
中文摘要:
      为揭示气候变化对云南省小粒咖啡适生区的影响,基于最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,结合小粒咖啡物种分布数据、环境变量数据,构建云南省小粒咖啡适生区评估及预测模型,对当前气候条件下小粒咖啡在云南省的适生区进行评估,并对未来气候条件下,小粒咖啡在云南省的适生区进行预测,再对预测结果进行对比分析。结果显示:(1)构建的MaxEnt模型能够较精确的用于小粒咖啡在云南省适生区的评估和预测,当前气候条件下,评估模型的训练集与测试集的AUC值均为0.941,达到评估结果为极好的标准。(2)影响云南省小粒咖啡种植的主导环境因子依次为11月平均最高气温、7月降雨量、海拔高度、2月平均最低气温、10月降雨量、坡度和最冷月最低气温,共占总贡献率的91.4%。(3)当前气候条件下,小粒咖啡的适生区主要分布在滇西、滇西南以及滇南的保山、德宏、普洱、临沧、西双版纳等地区,总适生区约为11.63万km2,占云南国土面积的29.49%,且总体上,高适生区外围分布中适生区,中适生区外围分布低适生区。RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下,小粒咖啡总适生区的面积分别约为9.83万km2、6.97万km2,分别占云南省国土面积的24.92%、17.67%,两种排放情景下小粒咖啡总适生区面积分别减少了1.80万km2、4.66万km2,国土面积占比分别减少了4.57%、11.82%,且总适生区的质心均由东南向西北方向迁移,与RCP4.5情景相比,RCP8.5情景的迁移距离更远。(4)未来气候变化将会导致小粒咖啡在云南省的总适生区面积减小,总适生区的质心位置向海拔更高与纬度更高的方向移动,且高碳排放情景下这种变化幅度更大。
英文摘要:
      In order to reveal the impact of climate change on the suitable growth zone for Coffea arabica in Yunnan Province, based on the MaxEnt model, combined with the species distribution data and environmental variable data of Coffea arabica, an assessment and prediction model for the suitable growth zone of Coffea arabica in Yunnan Province was constructed to evaluate the suitable growth zone of Coffea arabica in Yunnan Province under current climatic conditions, and predict the suitable distribution of Coffea arabica in Yunnan under future climate conditions, and then compare and analyze the prediction results. The results show that: (1) The constructed MaxEnt model can be accurately used for the assessment and prediction of Coffea arabica in suitable growth zone in Yunnan Province. Under current climate conditions, the AUC value of the training set and test set of the evaluation model are both 0.941, and the evaluation result is excellent standard. (2) The dominant environmental factors affecting the cultivation of Coffea arabica in Yunnan Province are the average maximum temperature in November, the rainfall in July, the altitude, the average minimum temperature in February, the rainfall in October, the slope, and the minimum temperature in the coldest month. The contribution rate is 91.4%. (3) Under current climatic conditions, the suitable growth zone for Coffea arabica are mainly distributed in western Yunnan, southwestern Yunnan and Baoshan, Dehong, Pu"er, Lincang, Xishuangbanna and other areas in southern Yunnan. The total suitable growth zone is about 116,300 km2, which accounts for 29.49% of Yunnan"s land area, and in general, there are moderately suitable areas around the periphery of high-fitness areas, and low-fitness areas are distributed around the periphery of medium-fitness areas. Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the total suitable growth zone for Coffea arabica is about 98,300 km2 and 69,700 km2 respectively, accounting for 24.92% and 17.67% of the land area of Yunnan Province, respectively. The area of the suitable growth zone has decreased by 18,000 km2 and 46,600 km2, respectively, and the proportion of land area has decreased by 4.57% and 11.82%, and the center of mass of the total suitable growth zone has migrated from southeast to northwest. Compared with the RCP4.5 scenario , the migration distance of RCP8.5 scenario is farther. (4) Future climate change will lead to the reduction of the total suitable growth zone of Coffea arabica in Yunnan Province. The position of the center of mass of the total suitable growth zone will move to higher altitudes and higher latitudes, and the greater the magnitude of this change under high carbon emission scenarios.
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