鄢凤玉,赵传湖,孙即霖. 2021. 1470-2019年中国东部旱涝年代际变化及其与太平洋海表面温度的关系[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2021.020
1470-2019年中国东部旱涝年代际变化及其与太平洋海表面温度的关系
Interdecadal variation of dryness/wetness in eastern China and its relationship with Pacific sea surface temperature during 1470-2019
投稿时间:2020-10-09  修订日期:2020-12-15
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2021.020
中文关键词:  中国东部,旱涝等级,年代际,太平洋年代际振荡,Niño3.4指数
英文关键词:Eastern  China, dryness/wetness  indices, Interdecadal, Pacific  Decadal Oscillation, Niño3.4 index
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0607000),国家自然科学基金(41975061)
作者单位邮编
鄢凤玉 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院 266100
赵传湖 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院 266100
孙即霖 中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院 266100
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中文摘要:
      [资料和方法]基于1470-2019年中国东部地区(30°-40°N,105°E以东)19个站点旱涝等级和古气候代用资料定量重建的太平洋海表面温度指数,通过经验正交函数分解、小波分析和集合经验模态分解方法分析了[目的]中国东部旱涝年代际变化特征及其与太平洋海温的关系。[结果][结论]结果表明,(1)1470年以来中国东部旱涝变化的主模态为全区一致型(方差贡献率为25.2%),变率中心主要位于黄河中下游,其时间系数的小波分析和集合经验模态分解揭示出全区旱涝存在10-30a的准周期;该模态长期趋势揭示17-18世纪中国东部整体偏涝,而19世纪以后出现旱化趋势。(2)寒冷背景下中国东部旱涝一致变化更明显,在17世纪前中期和19世纪中后期的小冰期寒冷期全区一致型模态的方差贡献率达到35%-40%,且这两个时间段10-30a的年代际变化信号尤为显著;而旱涝的变率中心则表现出冷期偏北,暖期偏南或偏西的特征。(3)中国东部旱涝的年代际变化与北太平洋和赤道中东太平洋海表面温度异常有关,表现为偏涝(旱)气候对应于太平洋年代际振荡的冷(暖)相位和年代际尺度上的前一年11月到当年1月Ni?o3.4区海表面温度的异常偏低(高);在小冰期的寒冷期,旱涝的年代际变化可能与Ni?o3.4区海表面温度异常关系更密切。
英文摘要:
      Based on the dryness/wetness indices at 19 sites in eastern China (30°-40°N, east of 105°E) during 1470-2019 and paleoclimate proxy quantitative reconstructed indices of Pacific sea surface temperature, the characteristics of dryness/wetness change in eastern China and its relationship with the Pacific sea surface temperature are analyzed by empirical orthogonal function, wavelet analysis and ensemble empirical mode decomposition. The results show that, (1) The principal pattern of dryness/wetness is a monopole mode, with same anomaly in whole eastern China with a major variation center in the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River (variance contribution ratio is 25.2%). A quasi-periodic variation of 10-30a in the whole region is revealed by wavelet analysis and ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis. The long-term trend of the principal mode shows that the whole eastern China is wet in the 17th and 18th centuries, and experiencing a drought trend since the 19th century. (2) The monopole and its 10-20a variation are particularly significant in the two cold stage (the first and middle of the 17th century and the middle and late 19th century), when the variance contribution rate region reaches about 35%-40%. Meanwhile, the variation center locates north in cold period, and south or west in warm period. (3) The interdecadal variation of dryness/wetness in eastern China is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Pacific and the equatorial middle east Pacific. The wetness(dryness) corresponds cold (warm) phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the interdecadal abnormal low (high) sea surface temperature in the Ni?o3.4 region from November of the previous year to January of the current year. In the cold period of the little Ice Age, the interdecadal variation of dryness/wetness may be more closely related to the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Ni?o3.4 region.
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