甘玉婷,陈昊明,李建. 2021. 千米尺度数值预报模式对泰山地区暖季降水预报性能的评估[J]. 气象学报, (0):-, doi:10.11676/qxxb2021.055
千米尺度数值预报模式对泰山地区暖季降水预报性能的评估
Evaluation on precipitation forecast of numerical forecast model at convection-permitting resolution during warm season in Mountain Tai Area
投稿时间:2020-08-17  修订日期:2021-02-22
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2021.055
中文关键词:  泰山地区、小时尺度降水特征、降水评估
英文关键词:Mountain Tai area, characteristics of hourly precipitation, evaluation of predicted precipitation
基金项目:国家自然科学基金、国家重点研发计划项目
作者单位邮编
甘玉婷 山东省气象服务中心 250031
陈昊明 中国气象科学研究院 100080
李建 中国气象科学研究院 100080
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中文摘要:
      为深入认识对流可分辨模式对小尺度孤立地形区降水的预报性能,本文使用2017年暖季(5—9月)台站逐时降水观测数据,以小时尺度降水特征为指标,细致评估了千米尺度分辨率(3km)的北京“睿图”短期数值预报子系统(RMAPS-ST)对泰山及其周边地区降水特征的预报能力,并对比了不同起报时次(北京时08时和20时)的预报差异。评估发现,RMAPS-ST可以再现泰山站的局地降水中心,但区域西南侧降水预报小于观测,而泰山站及其东北侧则相反。清晨和午后时段的降水预报与观测相比存在较大偏差。以泰山站为例,RMAPS-ST易于低估夜间至清晨时段的降水频率,这可能与模式对降水系统发展演变过程的预报偏差以及清晨泰山站弱降水事件的漏报有关;清晨泰山站降水强度的预报在不同起报时次的结果中存在差异,20时起报存在大幅高估的问题,进而导致其暖季平均降水量预报大于观测,而08时起报对于清晨降水强度的高估不明显;08时起报易于高估泰山站午后的降水频率,这与其午后短历时降水事件数预报偏多有关,模式对山区热动力场的预报偏差是午后降水空报的可能原因。小时尺度降水特征已应用于中国气象局区域数值预报模式的业务评估体系中,本文结果也表明,此类评估有助于深入认识千米尺度数值预报模式对降水日内变化的预报能力,从而为精细化降水产品的订正提供更细致的科学依据。
英文摘要:
      In order to further understand the prediction performance of convection-permitting models for the precipitation in the isolated, small-scale topographic regions, the precipitation forecast products of RMAPS-ST experimental system at 3 km horizontal resolution are evaluated thoroughly against the hourly precipitation from 80 stations of National Meteorological Surface Observation Network in Mountain Tai area during the warm season (from May to September) of 2017. Evaluation was based on hourly precipitation characteristics and the differences of rainfall prediction starting at 20BT and 08BT were compared. The results of this study show that, RMAPS-ST reproduced the spatial distribution characteristics of hourly precipitation in the study area, but the predicted rainfall amount in the southwest (Taishan Station and its northeast side) of the mountain area was lower (higher) than observations. There is a large deviation of the precipitation forecast of early morning and afternoon. Taking Taishan Station as an example, RMAPS-ST underestimated the rainfall frequency of early morning, which may be related to the forecast deviation of the model on the development and evolution of the precipitation system and the omission of weak rainfall events at Taishan Station in the early morning. The predicted intensity of early morning rainfall at Taishan Station was different in the forecast results of different starting times. In the forecast results starting at 20BT, the intensity of early morning rainfall at Taishan Station was significantly overestimated, which led to the fact that its predicted amount of precipitation was higher than observations, while the overestimation of precipitation intensity was not obvious in the forecast results starting at 08BT. RMAPS-ST overestimated the frequency of afternoon rainfall at Taishan Station in the prediction results starting at 08BT, which was related to more predicted rainfall events with short duration in the afternoon. The prediction deviation of thermal field and water vapor field is the possible reason for the false precipitation forecast in the afternoon.The characteristics of hourly precipitation have been applied to the operational evaluation system of the regional numerical forecast model of China Meteorological Administration. The results of this paper also indicate that this kind of evaluation is helpful to further understand the forecast ability of the kilometer scale numerical forecasting model to the diurnal variation of precipitation, so as to provide a more detailed scientific basis for the revision of precipitation products.
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