中国气候预测研究与业务发展的回顾

Highlights of climate prediction study and operation in China over the past decades

中文关键词:  气候预测  气候系统模式  东亚季风  季节内气候变异  年代际气候变化

英文关键词:Climate prediction  Climate system model  East Asian monsoon  Intra-seasonal climate variability  Inter-decadal climate variation

中文摘要:

      天气预报是指一周内至两周时间尺度的气象预报，而月季及以上时间尺度的预报则属于气候预测范畴。中国的气候预测起步很早，无论在研究工作中还是在业务应用上都取得了显著成就。文中扼要回顾了这些研究和业务发展成就，重点包括：对于季风和梅雨、寒潮的早期认知和后期研究发现、早期气候预测业务发展概况、动力气候预测的早期探索、动力-统计气候预测方法的研制和应用、气候预测模式的发展以及初始化和多模式集合预测、东亚气候系统变异的全方位探索、气候预测范畴的不断拓展和气候预测研究的不断创新。也对未来气候预测研究和业务发展提出了几个重大挑战性课题，涉及不同时间尺度气候变异过程之间的相互作用、季节内至年代际气候预测、气候系统模式及初始化、动力-统计相结合的气候预测方法等方面。

英文摘要:

      Weather forecast means day-to-day meteorological prediction for up to two weeks, while climate prediction is a long-term prediction from one month to decades or even longer. In China, climate prediction started quite early, both in scientific research and in meteorological operation. A lot of achievements in climate research and prediction application have been made over the past half-century. In this paper, the authors briefly highlight these achievements, including the initial recognition of the East Asian monsoon, Meiyu and cold surge, climate prediction development in the early stage, development of dynamical climate prediction, development of operational climate prediction model and its initialization, research on statistical climate prediction approach, intensive study on the variability and predictability of East Asian climate system, expansion of the scope of climate prediction and development of new prediction approaches, etc. Prospects on climate prediction in the future are given as well in the last part of this paper, with the focus on multi-scale climate variability and their interaction, intra-seasonal to inter-decadal climate prediction, improvements of the climate system model and initialization, and hybrid dynamical-statistical climate prediction methods.