黄河流域未来气候-水文变化的模拟研究

Simulative study of future climate and hydrological change over the Yellow River basin

中文关键词:  黄河流域  VIC模型  水文变化  气候变化  典型浓度路径

英文关键词:Yellow River basin  VIC  Hydrological Change  Climate change  RCPs

中文摘要:

      将大尺度半分布式水文模型VIC应用到黄河上中游流域(花园口水文断面以上),并利用区域气候模式RegCM4.0单向嵌套全球气候模式BCC_CSM1.1,动力降尺度到黄河流域的模拟结果驱动VIC模型,开展在新的典型浓度路径下(RCP4.5和RCP8.5)黄河流域未来气候和水文变化的离线模拟。模拟结果显示,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下,黄河流域21世纪平均地表气温相对于1971—2000年均呈显著上升趋势,2019—2048年上升1.2—1.5℃,2069—2098年上升2.19—3.9℃。未来年平均降水量有微弱的增大,2019—2048年增幅为6%左右,2069—2098年增幅为1.4%—5.6%。未来蒸发量增大明显,2069—2098年年平均蒸发量最大可增加9.6%。2019—2048年花园口水文站的年平均径流量增大3.4%—7.4%,2069—2098年年平均径流量转为减少,减幅为3.3%—5.3%。黄河上游地区未来气候和水文变化趋势与黄河流域基本一致,但未来年径流量变幅低于黄河流域,相对比较稳定。

英文摘要:

      A macro-scale and semi-distributed hydrologic model (VIC) was applied in the upper-middle reach of the Yellow River (above the Huayuankou Hydrological Station), and the regional climate model RegCM4.0 one-way nested by the global model BCC_CSM1.1 was used to downscale climate simulation to drive the VIC for simulating the future climate and hydrologic changes over the Yellow River basin under the new RCPs scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The simulation results show that, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, annual mean surface air temperature in the future will arise apparently. In the periods of 2019-2048 and 2069-2098, relative to the reference period 1971-2000, temperature will arise 1.2-1.5℃and 2.19-3.9℃,respectively. The annual mean precipitation will slightly increase, with the rate of 6% in 2019-2048, and 1.4%-5.6% in 2069-2098. The annual mean evaporation will distinctly increase, with the maximum rate of 9.6% in 2069-2098. However, the annual mean runoff in Huayuankou Station in 2019-2048 will increase by 3.4% to 7.4%, while decrease by 3.3% to 5.3% in 2069-2098. In the upper reach of the Yellow River, the general climatic and hydrological trends are the same as the whole basin, but the annual mean runoff in the upper reach will remain the stable level in the future, the decreasing rate will be much less than the one in the whole basin.