二维能量平衡模式对若干气候问题的研究

Two-dimensional energy balance model and its application to some climatic issues

中文关键词:  二维能量平衡模式  多平衡态  冰期  荒漠化  二氧化碳温室效应

英文关键词:Two-dimensional energy balance model  Multiple equilibria  Ice cap latitude  Desertification  Warming effect of carbon dioxide

中文摘要:

      回顾并分析讨论了二维能量平衡模式在冰界纬度和太阳常数的关系、荒漠化的演变及二氧化碳温室效应等一系列气候问题中的应用。同一个太阳常数最多可以对应3个平衡态，一个对应着目前的气候状态，一个对应着冰期气候，另一个对应着几乎全球冰封的气候，平衡态的数目及其稳定性与反照率的分布关系密切，反照率不连续性越大，平衡态的数目越多。荒漠带会随着荒漠反照率的增大分别向南、向北扩张，恶化荒漠植被交界地区的生态环境，危及人类的生产生活，荒漠化对中低纬度（高纬度）的温度变化影响较弱（显著）。二氧化碳浓度升高并不会使极冰迅速消融，全球平均温度缓慢升高，冰界纬度缓慢向北退却，时常会出现“停滞”现象。

英文摘要:

      Based on a two-dimensional energy balance model, the studies on some climatic issues such as the relationship between ice cap latitude and solar constant, desertification, and the warming effect of carbon dioxide, have been reviewed and discussed. The phenomenon that a fixed solar constant might correspond to different equilibrium ice cap latitudes is determined by the continuity of albedo distribution. The discontinuity in albedo distribution increases the number of equilibrium ice cap latitude. Desert would expand both northward and southward when desert surface albedo is increasing. This would deteriorate the ecological environment in border regions, and then threaten the existence of local inhabitants. Polar ice would not accelerate melting with increasing carbon dioxide concentration. The ice cap latitude would move northward slowly, with some "hiatus" periods, under the slowly increasing global average surface temperature. According to the current research, future development of the two-dimensional energy balance model and possible progress are also forecasted.