中国南方暴雨野外试验中尺度气象分析场的建立及其质量评估

The establishment and quality evaluation of the meso-scale analysis field based on the southern China torrential rainfall experiment

中文关键词:  LAPS， 诊断分析， 融合和同化， 适用性， 质量评估

英文关键词:LAPS, Diagnostic analysis, Integrate and assimilate, Applicability, Quality evaluation

中文摘要:

      利用武汉暴雨研究所从美国引进的LAPS中尺度分析系统，将2008年和2009年5—7月中国南方暴雨野外科学试验（SCHeREX）中所采集的观测资料进行融合、同化，生成了华南、华中、江淮和长江三角洲4个观测区的空间分辨为5 km、时间分辨为3 h的SHCeREX中尺度气象分析场。文中从两方面对SCHeREX中尺度分析场的质量进行了评估分析。首先，根据野外试验期间在4个观测区出现的暴雨日，结合观测的雷达回波和卫星云图云顶亮温（TBB）资料与SCHeREX中尺度分析资料进行统计分析与比较，结果表明，SCHeREX中尺度分析资料对中尺度强对流系统具有很强的再现能力。同时，以探空观测资料为基准，分析计算了SCHeREX中尺度分析场的平均偏差、平均均方根误差及其随高度的分布，分析结果表明SCHeREX中尺度分析场的位势高度、温度、相对湿度、风向和风速的分析误差均在观测误差范围内，尤其是SCHeREX中尺度分析场700—925 hPa位势高度的平均分析误差为45 gpm，温度的平均分析误差为1.0—1.1℃，相对湿度的平均分析误差不超过20%，风速的平均误差为1.5—2.0 m/s，风向为20°—25°。

英文摘要:

      The LAPS meso-scale analysis system as is brought in by the Wuhan Heavy Rainfall Institute from the United States was used to integrate and assimilate the intensive observed data from the Southern China Torrential Rainfall Experiment (SCHeREX) in May-July, 2008/2009, and a meso scale meteorological analysis field with the horizontal resolution 5 km and the time resolution 3 h covering four observational regions: South China, central China, the Jianghuai region and the delta of the Yangtze River, has been formed. The quality of the SCHeREX meso scale analysis field has been evaluated. First, aiming at the key torrential rainfall events, the SCHeREX meso scale analysis field was qualitatively compared with the radar reflectivity and the TBB image to study its capability of reproduction of meso-scale systems. The results show that the meso-scale system induced torrential rainfall events can be analyzed by using the SCHeREX meso scale analysis data. It can reproduce the development and evolution process of a meso-βsystem caused torrential rainfall events. The mean bias, the mean root square error and its distribution characteristics with heights were calculated and analyzed. The analysis results show that the analysis errors of geospatial height, temperature, relative humidity and wind from the SCHeREX meso-scale analysis data were acceptable, which are all within the observational errors, especially averaged analysis error of geopotential height was 45 gpm and the analysis error of temperature was 1.0-1.1℃, the relative humidity not exceeded 20%, the mean analysis error of wind speed was 1.5-2.0 m/s and the error of wind direction was 20°-25° over 700-925 hPa. The above results clearly indicated that the SCHeREX meso-scale analysis field has very strong applicability for diagnostic analysis of meso-scale convective systems. 