认识和预报亚洲季风气候：前沿突破点和展望

Thrusts and prospects on understanding and predicting Asian monsoon climate

中文关键词:  亚洲季风，气候可预报性,气候预测，季节内振荡

英文关键词:Asian monsoon, Climate predictability, Climate prediction, Intraseasonal oscillation

中文摘要:

      改进我们对季风变化和可预报性的认识以便促进季风气候预报的发展是当前世界气候研究计划下属的国际季风研究（IMS）和亚洲季风年（AMY2007-2011）研究的一个主要目的。本文从以下方面回顾了亚洲季风气候研究的最新进展：（1）季风变化的机制和数值模拟，（2）可预报性的物理基础和极限，（3）气候预报的现状。文章的讨论侧重于周尺度到年际尺度，特别提出了季风气候研究中存在的若干科学问题和研究前沿上的可能突破点，讨论了季风预报研究的未来发展方向，旨在促进未来的季风研究，加深我们对季风气候动力学的理解，以及提高对亚洲季风气候变化的预报能力。

英文摘要:

      Development of monsoon climate prediction through integrated research efforts to improve our understanding of monsoon variability and predictability is a primary goal of the Asian Monsoon Years (2007-2011) and International Monsoon Study under the leadership of the World Climate Research Programme. The present paper reviews recent progress in Asian monsoon research focusing on (1) understanding and modeling of the monsoon variability, (2) determining the sources and limits of predictability, and (3) assessing the current status of climate prediction, with emphasis on the weekly to interannual timescales. Particular attention is paid to identify scientific issues and thrust areas, as well as potential directions to move forward in an attempt to stimulate future research to advance our understanding of monsoon climate dynamics and improve our capability to forecast Asian monsoon climate variation.