梁平德,段丽瑶,周鸣盛,周梁丹 . 2006. 华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆[J]. 气象学报, 64(3):385-391, doi:10.11676/qxxb2006.037 |
华北盛夏旱涝的环流型特征及其在初夏的预兆 |
CIRCULATION PATTERNS FOR MID SUMMER DROUGHT/FLOOD IN NORTH CHINA AND THEIR EARLY SUMMER PRECURSERS |
投稿时间:2005-05-12 修订日期:2005-07-21 |
DOI:10.11676/qxxb2006.037 |
中文关键词: 华北,盛夏旱涝,环流型,先兆过程 |
英文关键词:Midsummer rainfall, North China, Circulation pattern, Early stage weather process. |
基金项目:国家科技部社会公益类项目(2002DIB20067) |
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中文摘要: |
文中应用NCEP/NCAR 500 hPa逐日资料对影响华北盛夏旱涝 的环流特征进行分析,给出了盛夏旱涝分别与 “西高东低”和“东高西低”流型的对应关 系。并进一步研究初夏与盛夏的环流演变特征,得知若在6月500 hPa华北出现异常增高过 程时,则盛夏多出现“西高东低”流型,华北少雨;反之,6月华北出现异常低压过程时, 盛夏多出现“东高西低”流型,华北多雨。6月华北高压区环流特征与盛夏的环流型相关系 数达0.597,与华北中部盛夏降水相关系数为0.562,为初夏进行盛夏旱涝短期气候预测提供 了依据。以此为根据建立了初夏对于天津盛夏降水短期气候预测的经验方法,在2002—2004 年的业务应用中预报趋势都是正确的。 |
英文摘要: |
The relation between weather processes in early and mid-summer is investigate d using the NCAR/NCEP daily 500 hPa reanalysis data. It is shown that if there is a anomalously strong increase process of 500 hPa height over North China in June , then there will be more days when the circulation pattern of “west high east lo w" dominates over North China in July and August, and the rainfall will be less; conversely, if there is a quite deep low process over North China in June, then there will be more days when the circulation pattern of “west low east high " do minates in July and August, and the rainfall will be more. Correlation coefficie nts of the daily maximum positive height anomaly over the North China High regio n (40°-45°N, 100°-115°E) in June with the day number of the circulation patt ern of “west high east low" in July and August over North China, and the mid-sum mer rainfall in North China are 0.597 and 0.562 , respectively. Based on the a bove analysis results, a short rang climate forecast empirical method for mid-summer rainfall in Tianjin was established, and its performance in the operational forecasts for mid-summer rainfall in Tianjin in 2002-2004 is quite well. |
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