一个全球海气耦合模式跨季度汛期预测能力的初步检验和评估

PRIMARY VERIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT ON THE EXTRA-SEASONALLY PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF A GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC-OCEANIC COUPLED MODEL IN RAINING SEASON

中文关键词:  耦合模式  季节预测  回报试验  定量评估

英文关键词:Coupled model  Seasonal prediction  Hindcast experiments  Quantitatively assessment

中文摘要:

      文中利用一个全球大气海洋耦合模式,对中国汛期气候异常进行了1991～2001年共11a的跨季度回报试验和检验研究。采用一套多指标的评估方法,对该模式的预报性能进行系统的定量评估。结果表明,该模式对中国汛期降水和温度及夏季北半球大尺度环流场等都有一定的跨季度预报能力。模式对中国不同区域夏季降水的预测能力有所不同。总的来说,模式对中国东部和西部的降水趋势回报较好,模式预报好于气候预报和持续性预报。从相关系数指标来看,模式跨季度预测夏季温度的技巧在中国西部比中国东部高。

英文摘要:

      In the present paper,extraseasonal hindcast experiments and verifications of climate anomalies in China during the raining seasons of 1991-2001 (tot ally 11 years) were conducted based on a global at mospherico-ceanic coupled model.Aset of indexes charact erizing different predictive skills was utilized to assess systematically and quantit at ively the predictive perform ance of the model.The model verification has indicated that the model has certain capability in predicting seasonally rainfall and temperature over China as well as the large-scale circulation in the North Hemisphere in summer time.The model prediction is better than climatological prediction and persistence prediction.The model performance of summer rainfall prediction varies in different regions of China.In general,the prediction of rainfall tendency in both East China and West China are reasonable.In view of anomaly correlation coefficient,the model skill in seasonal prediction of the summer temperature are relatively higher in West China than in East China.