与非线性区域预测方法结合的月延伸预报试验Ⅱ:对波动分量预报的改进

MONTHLY EXTENDED PREDICTING EXPERIMENTS WITH NON-LINE AR REGIONAL PREDICTION Ⅱ: IMPEROVEMENT OF WAVE COMPONENT PREDICTION

中文关键词:  月延伸预报  纬向平均环流  非线性区域预报  过程订正

英文关键词:Dynamical extended prediction  Zonal flow  Nonlinear regional prediction  Wave-component  nudging

中文摘要:

      在文献[1]的基础上,设计了将逐候纬向平均高度距平场非线性动力学区域预报和T42L9谱模式动力延伸预报结合的方案,即将非线性预报结果转化为模式的静力扣除谱系数,然后在模式积分过程中的每一步取代其相应部分,实施过程订正。多个例试验结果表明,这种途径在减少了模式纬向环流的预报误差的同时,还通过非线性波流相互作用,改善了部分波动分量的预报。另外部分个例的形势场预报也得到较明显的改善。

英文摘要:

      Based on Chen et al,the scheme of the combination of the pentad-mean zonal height departure nonlinear prediction with the T42L9 model prediction was designed,in which the pentad zonal heights atall the 12 initial-value-inputisobar levels from 50 hPa to 1000 hPa except 200,300 500 and 700 hPa were derived from nonlinear forecasts of the four levels by means of a good corelation between neighboring levels.Then the above pentad zonal heights on 12 isobar-levels were transformed to the spectrum coefficients of the temperature ateach integration step of T42L9 model Infinal,the nudging was made.On account of a variety oferror accumulation,the pentad zonal components of the monthly height on isobar levels out put by T42L9 model were replaced by the corresponding nonlinear results once more when integration was over.