北太平洋海温分布型指数的年际变化及预测

INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF SST PATTERN INDEXES IN NORTH PACIFIC AND ITS PREDICTION

中文关键词:  海温分布型指数  年际变化  统计预测模式

英文关键词:Distribution patter nindexes of SST,Interannual variation,Statistical prediction model

中文摘要:

      从预测中国夏季降水趋势分布的需要出发,定义了一个反映北太平洋海域表面温度变化的分布型指数。该指数较好地表征出海温的年际变化特征及厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜事件,及其与中国夏季降水分布型式有较清晰的相关关系。在分析分布型指数变化特征基础上构建了一个统计预测模式。模拟计算及36个个例提前6个月的预测试验结果表明,该模式可以较好地预测出北太平洋海温的变化趋势,为提前半年做出中国夏季降水趋势分布预测提供了依据。

英文摘要:

      Account ing for improvement of the summer rainfall prediction in China on the basis of the sea surface temperature(SST) data,distribution pattern indexes of SST in North Pacific are defined,which can represent inter annual variation of SST and El Nino and La Nina events.It is found that there are stronger correlation between the indexes and summer rainfall in China.Regarding the indexes as main predictors and combining them wift at mospheic circulation indexes and rainfall oscillation,a statistical prediction model of summer rainfall in China has been built.The results of simulating and 36 predicting experiments 6 months ahead show that the variation of SST can be predicted by the model and can provide basis for predicting summer rainfall in China.