定性和定量长期预报模型的综合分析

COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS ON QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE MODEL OF LONG-TERM FORECASTING

中文关键词:  综合分析  神经网络  定性  定量

英文关键词:Comprehensive analysis  Neural network  Qualitative  Quantitative

中文摘要:

      根据相同的500hPa和海温场预报因子,利用神经网络灵活可变的拓朴结构,分别构造了定性和定量的降水长期预报模型.并在同等条件下,建立了逐步回归预报方程.通过对比分析表明,这种定性和定量相结合的神经网络综合预报分析方法,是增强预报结果可靠性和稳定性的一种有效途径.该预报建模方法具有比较合理的分析依据,值得进一步探索、应用.

英文摘要:

      In terms of the same predictors of previous monthly mean 500 hPa height and sea surface temperature,a qualitative and quantitative models of long-term forecasting of rainfall over Changjiang-Huaihe Valley are constructed aid of the variable topological structure of neural network.A stepwise regression model is established using same predictors.The contrast analysis shows the comprehensive forecast method of the qualitative and quantitative is superior in improving predictive accuracy and stability.This shows great promise in the research of precipitation prediction on long-range basis due mainly to the reasonable analysis for prediction method and prodictors.