距平模式月际旱涝异常的诊断及预测试验

DIAGNOSTIC AND PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN SUMMER BY USING A NONSTEADY ATMOSPHERE AND EARTH SURFACE COUPLED ANOMALY MODEL

中文关键词:  距平模式  旱涝预测  模式输出统计(MOS)

英文关键词:Anomaly model  Droughts and floods prediction  Model output statistics(MOS)

中文摘要:

      用地气耦合非定常距平模式对24个夏季旱涝月个例进行了诊断和预测试验。结果表明,用这种动力与统计外部结合的MOS方法进行旱涝预测比较简易可行,并且达到一定的准确率,便于在短期气候预报的业务中推广应用。

英文摘要:

      In this paper, a nonsteady atmosphere-earth surface coupled anomaly model is used to carry out diagnostic and prediction experiments of droughts and floods in summer for 24 monthly cases. The results show that this dynamic and statistical externally combined MOS method is convenient and easy to use for the prediction of droughts and floods and is of certain forecasting accuracy and hence is easily applicable for operational short-range climate forecasting. This method is of the potentiality for further developing and improving.