农业气象灾害风险评价模型及应用

AN AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL DISASTER RISK ANALYSIS MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION

中文关键词:  农业气象灾害  风险评价模型  荔枝

英文关键词:Agro-meteoro logical disaster  Risk analysis model  Litchi

中文摘要:

      本文根据灾害风险分析原理,建立了一个经三层逐级放大的农业气象灾害风险分析实用模型,并以珠江三角洲荔枝生产为例分析计算了主要农业气象灾害以及风险体系的风险度,其结果对农业气象灾害风险管理与决策及灾害防御有一定的参考价值。

英文摘要:

      Based on the principle of disaster risk analysis,a practical model of agro-meteorological disaster risk analysis is established from gradual three-level enlargement of abasic concept model.Using this model,the risk degrees of mainagro-meteorolo gical disasterand risk system of litchi in the Zhujiang Delta are analyzed and calculated.The results show important to agro-meteorological disaster risk decision and risk management.