我国干旱半干旱地区现代降水量和历史干旱频率的变化

THE CHANGES OF PRESENT PRECIPITATION AND HISTORICAL DROUGHT FREQUENCY IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID REGIONS OF CHINA

中文摘要:

      竺可桢根据我国丰富的历史记载,首先给出了我国近5000年的温度序列,对历史气候的研究作出了卓越的贡献.张家诚等组织完成了我国500年旱涝图集,並且作了许多历史气候的研究工作.但是受资料的限制,过去对我国干旱半干旱地区历史气候的研究较少.而现代气候(一般指使用现代气象仪器观测时期的气候)与历史气候的研究相比,我国现代气候的研究相对更少一些.本文根据目前可能收集到的资料,整理出一套我国干旱半干旱地区现代气候和历史气候变化的资料,並着重分析其变化趋势和周期.

英文摘要:

      In this paper, present precipitation and historical drought frequency in arid and semi-arid regions of China are analysed. It is found that in North China, east part of semi-arid regions of China, precipitation has decreased markedly since 1950s' and in I980s' it was lower markedly than normal. In the past of 520 years, historical drought frequency had striking 100-130 years quasi-period. The drought high fequency spells were 1480s, 1610s, 1720s, 1830s, 1930s, respectively. And the drought low frequency spells were 1560s, 1670s, 1770s, 1880s, respectively. The most of serious drought in history often occurred in drought high frequency spell. And in most of the drought high frequency spells in hstory, there were the most serious droughts.