运用连贯综合法作预报

LINK UP AND COMPLEX METHOD USED FOR LONG-RANGE FORECASTING

中文摘要:

      气象观测数据的时间序列(动态数据),是一个具有无限的现实联系并具有无限转化可能性的客观系统。本文使用连贯综合法(一种用多种方法综合迭加的统计思想)近似地描述客观观测数据。经自回归诊断分析和对历史资料的检验,收到较满意的结果,曾在黑白灾长期预报实际业务中应用过,也取得较好的效果。

英文摘要:

      In this paper, the statistical thought of Link Up And Complex Method are used to nearly description of objective observation data. By Making analysis of auto-regression diagnosties and testing statistical significance of historical data and comparing and analysing for error of mean square and so on, the better consequences are given, including the work of long-range forecasting of snow disaster.