中国MOS预报的进展

THE ADVANCE OF MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS METHOD IN CHINA

中文摘要:

      美国Glahn和Lowry在1972年提出MOS预报,它逐步取代完全预报成为美国国家气象中心的指导预报,最近十二年MOS预报发展很快,成为许多国家的业务预报方法。我国MOS方法起步并不晚,上海台1978年引进MOS方法并投入业务使用,吉林1979年利用传真图的模式输出发展了地方MOS方法,该方法适合广大台站和第三世界应用。国家气象局1982年决定在广大台站推广MOS方法,1982年秋由吉林、江苏、陕西、广东四省组成地方MOS科研组,到1983年末全国有25个省、市、自治区不同程度开展了MOS方法或PP(完全预报)方法。我国的地方MOS方法有中国特色,比较注意吸收预报员经验,并且采用多种统计模型,经实践证明地方MOS效果较好。吉林在1981年将中期MOS预报投入业务使用,现在已有十个省、市、自治区开展了中期MOS方法或PP方法,而美国目前中期业务预报仍靠PP方法。经调研证明我国已具备全面推广MOS方法的条件,应作出规划积极推广MOS方法。

英文摘要:

      In 1972, Glahn and Lowry proposed a Model Output Statistics (MOS) method for weather forecasting. In 1978, Shanghai Meteorological Observatory recommended the MOS method. and used in operation. In 1979,Jilin Province using the Model Output from facsimile broadcast developed a regional MOS method. In 1982,State Meteorological Administration decided to develop the MOS method in broad meteorological obseratory or station and Jilin, Jiansu, Shanxi and Guangdong Provinces organized a research group for a regional MOS method. At the end of 1983,25 provinces are using the MOS method or PP method in China. The Regional MOS in China has distinctive feature. The factors of the regional MOS are not selected by screening the thousands of quantity but are depended on the fore-castor's experiences and the local weather researches. Many statistics models are used in the regional MOS. There are ten provinces using MOS or PP in extendeds range forecasting in China.