滇中水稻冷害的强低温长期预报

LONG-RANGE FORECASTING OF SEVERE LOW TEMPERATURE ON THE COLD DAMAGE OF RICE IN THE CENTRE PART OF YUNNAN PROVINCE

中文摘要:

      本文分析了昆明(能代表滇中地区)3-8月月积温及8月平均气温对水稻产量的影响,提出了水稻冷害的低温指标.本文得到:3-8月500毫巴西太平洋副高的强弱是影响昆明同期气温高低的重要因素,而该副高的强度有较好的持续性,故可据该副高1-2月的强度,预报滇中水稻冷害低温的有无.另外得出:西太平洋副高春夏季的强度,在上年11月已有反映,故可更早作出有无水稻冷害低温的估计.

英文摘要:

      In this paper, the influences of the monthly mean temperature for Mar-Aug. on the yield of rice in Kunming have been analysed and an index of the low temperature on the cold damage of rice is presented here. It is shown that the strong/weak on the intensity of West-Pacific subtropical high. at 500mb level in the period of Mar.-Aug. is well related to the high/low temperature in the same time in Kunming region and this intensity holds well from Winter through Summer. According to the intensity during Jan.-Feb. we can forecast the intensity for Mar-Aug. and go on with the low temperature forecasting in Kumming area.