用积云数值模式预报冰雹的探讨

AN APPROACH OF THE HAIL FORECAST WITH A NUMERICAL MODEL OF CUMULUS

中文摘要:

      用一维、定常积云模式对北京1964—1975年6月及1964—1976年7月07时(北京时,下同)的探空记录进行了计算,并结合同期延庆县降雹实况进行了分析.计算结果用点聚图过滤法试做冰雹预报,找出预报指标.对所计算的历年7月份的403天历史资料,总概括率为80%,降雹日概括率为71%.

英文摘要:

      The one-dimensional time-independent cumulus model has been used to compute the 07h sounding data from Beijing in June 1964-1975 and in July 1964-1976.The results have been used to analyse the real hail data of Yanqing in order to obtain the forecast indices. The accuracy rate of hail forecast is 71% for past records of 403 days. Besides, we have computed the 13h sounding data and discuss the effect of mesoscale lifting. They are useful to improve the accuracy rate of hail forecast.